Tony Davis Our third La Niña weather pattern in three years seems almost certain, and one climate expert says that could be bad news for the already overtapped Colorado River.
People are also reading… Daniel Swain, a UCLA-based climate scientist, said he believes three straight La Niña years could spell trouble for the river in the upcoming fall and winter. During La Niñas, trade winds in the Pacific Ocean are stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface, says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Those cold waters push the jet stream northward, bringing unusual warmth to the Southwest and across the southern U.S. and cooler, rainy and occasionally flooding weather to the Pacific Northwest.
Studies show the presence of a La Niña or an El Nino event — the latter brings cool, wet winters to the Southwest and warmer, drier winters to the Pacific Northwest — explains perhaps 30-35% of flow variations on the Colorado River, especially in the lower and middle river basin, Swain said. Yet even that low percentage"is still the single strongest predictor of inter-annual variability, as far as I am aware," he said.
• In 2022, April to July runoff into Powell was 59% of average, and the 2021-22 water year flow is forecast to be 63% of normal. Swain acknowledged a difference exists between actual runoff in the river basin and flows into Lake Powell. The river basin's overall flows are solely caused by climate conditions while flows into Powell are also triggered by direct human intervention, such as managing releases from dams upstream of Lake Powell, he said.
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