SYDNEY - Analysts have nudged up their forecasts for the Australian dollar as the currency proves resilient to global trade uncertainty and poor economic news at home, though the risk of radical policy easing looms for next year.
This time last year, the call was for the Aussie to end 2019 at $0.7500, a seven cent miss due largely to the endless Sino-U.S. trade dispute and three rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia . “We now expect a rate cut to 0.5% in February and a further cut to 0.25% in August,” said Stephen Halmarick, head of global markets research at CBA. “Those cuts and a small risk of QE in late 2020 will limit the Aussie’s upside.”
It was seen at $0.6550 in one year, compared to $0.6500 back in November. The currency was way ahead of analysts, however, having rallied sharply this week to reach $0.6542.
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