The move"primarily reflects our view that Fox is best positioned among peers in a weaker, but ultimately stable consumer environment," says Guggenheim's Michael Morris.
He highlighted that Fox's primary immediate risk was from advertising exposure, estimating that about 43 percent of the company’s fiscal year 2020 revenue was from advertising. "That said, we view the company’s exposure to live news and late-season sports content as relatively attractive compared to media peers," he said. "Any indications that the NFL season will be negatively impacted would likely weigh on investor sentiment.
Meanwhile, he cut his Disney price target to $100 from $160, but highlighted that this was still a premium reflecting "both the quality of Disney’s asset base and our view of the value of the direct-to-consumer business, which is a drag on near-term financial results." Concluded the analyst: "Disney is a tremendously valuable collection of physical and intellectual property assets, and our long-term view of industry-leading value creation potential is unchanged. However, we also believe that investors are under-appreciating how long the parks and resorts business may be under pressure relative to prior expectations.
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