Analysis | Trump’s misleading spin on the 2018 GDP growth rate

By Glenn Kessler Glenn Kessler The Fact Checker Email Bio Follow March 25 at 3:00 AM “We just came out with numbers … 3.1 percent GDP. The first time in 14 years that we cracked 3, right? That’s pretty good — 3.1. The press tried to make it 2.9. I said, ‘It’s not 2.9.’ What they did is they took odd months. I said, ‘No, no, no. You go from January to December. You don’t take certain months and add them up.’ Because I said, ‘We’re going to break 3.’ And we did. We did 3.1.

The problem for Trump is that he had hoped to beat 3 percent growth. So 2.9 percent would be a bit of a bummer, especially because President Barack Obama achieved that result in 2015. “I think most economists prefer four-quarter changes to annual averages,” Furman said. “As I’ve written before, the problem with annual average is that the annual average for 2018 reflects data on quarterly growth in 2017 and 2018. So it doesn’t tell you what is actually happening in a given year or, say, as a result of the tax cuts.”

Now that Trump is citing 4Q/4Q, that means the relevant comparison would not just be 4Q/4Q but other quarter-over-quarter calculations. The economy under Obama hit its peak in 1Q/1Q 2015, when it grew 3.8 percent. Obama exceeded 3.1 percent on two other occasions, as well. Obama’s nadir was reached in 2Q/2Q 2009, when the growth rate was -3.9 percent.

Trump’s CEA offers a compelling case that 4Q/4Q is a better gauge for measuring GDP growth within a calendar year, and it acknowledges that the 2.9 percent growth rate is the measure for year-over-year growth. But such nuances appear to have been missed by the president. If he just stuck to the numbers, without the braggadocio and press bashing, he’d be on more solid ground. The economy is doing well enough that there’s little need to spin the data further.

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It's apparent, Trump lies period. His worshippers will continue to praise him no matter what because they love what they choose to believe. For the rest of us, pray people because this mess will continue as long as he's President and the conservative Senate support him.

The problem with this article is that it fails to mention that all Obama’s numbers were hollow. They were driven by a 0% prime that allowed the Fed to artificially pump up the economy. There was zero real growth.

Arriadna It's a fu*king lie ...no spin

Apologize for the Russian collusion hoax, until then any credibility you had is gone.

Poor ole embarrassed Washington Post. Now digging up insignificant items on Donald Trump from 2018.

Your fact checks are actually wrong...how embarrassing for you

Spin it anyway you want - it hasn’t been this good in YEARS!

ANYTHING that comes out of trump's mouth (and those of his 'supporters') is misleading spin

The economy is the real issue over the next two years.

Fact Checker: Washington Post pushed a fake collusion story to us for two years.

How can the American people trust or take as credible anything the MSM tries to report after two years of reporting fake news about collusion. You went down the wrong rabbit hole. Now go down the right one...

It seems clear that when Trump or any of his staff addresses the public they cannot do it without spin, exaggeration or outright misinformation. In fact is this inability to appear truthful that has led to most of their conflicts.

No one will ever believe you again.

3.1 GDP,. Under a democrat we would see maybe 1.3 GDP

Good. An article about policy!

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