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Analysis: Trump cannot count on last-minute deciders to save him - Reuters/Ipsos poll

President Trump rode a wave of late-deciding voters in 2016 to a shocking election victory. But those voters are unlikely to secure him a second term, explains @Cmkahn

10/16/2020 11:30:00 AM

President Trump rode a wave of late-deciding voters in 2016 to a shocking election victory. But those voters are unlikely to secure him a second term, explains Cmkahn

Four years ago, U.S. President Donald Trump rode a wave of late-deciding voters to a shocking election victory. But those voters are unlikely to rescue him again, new Reuters/Ipsos polling shows.

But Reuters/Ipsos polling conducted between Oct. 9-13 shows there are far fewer undecided voters this year, and they are just as likely to pick Biden as they are Trump.The polling also shows Biden holding a 10-percentage-point lead nationally, with a tighter margin in the battleground states that will help to decide the election.

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“The candidate who is behind – Trump – needs to win undecideds at a disproportionate rate to catch up. So, if that isn’t happening, he’s not really cutting into Biden’s lead,” said Kyle Kondik, an election analyst at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Compounding Trump’s challenge has been a record rush of early voting Record early U.S. turnout with three weeks to go: Georgians, Texans line up to vote that far outpaces the rate in 2016 - more people want to avoid Election Day crowds because of the novel coronavirus pandemic. Almost 15 million Americans have already voted, according to the U.S. Elections Project at the University of Florida. That compares with about 1.4 million early votes by Oct. 16 in the 2016 election.

But the opinion polls suggest more voters have settled on their choice, reducing the opportunity for large, late swings.The Reuters/Ipsos national poll found that only about 8% of likely voters appear to be undecided, saying either that they do not know whom to support or that they are thinking about backing a third-party candidate.

Four years ago at this stage of the campaign, more than twice as many people were similarly wavering between Trump and his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton, injecting a volatile element late into a race that Clinton had been expected to win.FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally at John Murtha Johnstown-Cambria County Airport in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, U.S. October 13, 2020. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Among those voters who made up their minds in the final week of the 2016 campaign, 55% picked Trump while 36% picked Clinton, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll of voters on Election Day.They were critical for Trump’s success: a majority of late deciders in the battleground states of Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania backed Trump over Clinton that year, tipping those tight races in his favor on election night. Trump won Michigan and Pennsylvania by less than 1 percentage point and he won Florida by less than 2 points.

One of the big questions hanging over the 2020 election has been whether there will be a repeat of 2016’s 11th hour surge of support for Trump. The new Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates that is unlikely to happen - when forced to choose, undecided voters broke evenly for Trump and Biden, with each getting 4% support.

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The poll also found that 9 out of 10 likely Biden voters and 9 out of 10 likely Trump voters say they have locked in their decision and will not change their mind.Nevertheless, the Trump campaign said it remains confident that undecided voters will ultimately break its way.

“Our campaign is confident in the big tent, diverse coalition of support we’ve built over the last six years,” said Ken Farnaso, a Trump spokesman.WORK TO DOTrump not only needs to convert more undecided voters to his side, but persuade some Biden supporters to come back to him.

Trump's campaign schedule and rhetoric, however, suggest he's more concerned with mobilizing his conservative baseherein the final weeks of the election rather than try to reach undecided voters.This week he is visiting regions where his support is likely to be strongest: rural and semi-rural patches of Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump has avoided suburban areas where swing voters are more likely to reside.

Trump is playing down the threat of the virus, even after his own bout of infection and opinion polls showing a majority of the public, including many in the key voting bloc of older Americans, remain deeply concerned about becoming infected.“Donald Trump has never learned how to talk to anybody but his base,” said Sarah Longwell, a Republican pollster.

Biden, by contrast, this week has campaigned in the cities of Cincinnati and Toledo in Ohio and outside populous Fort Lauderdale in Florida. Both Ohio and Florida are battleground states.In particular, the president has had problems with independent and suburban women voters, many of whom gave him a chance in 2016 and who have been troubled by his coronavirus response and his caustic, divisive language.

At a rally in Johnstown, Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Trump seemed confounded by his unpopularity with that voting bloc.“Do me a favor, suburban women,” he implored. “Would you please like me?”Reporting by Chris Kahn and James Oliphant, editing by Ross Colvin and Grant McCool

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is trying hard 😂 Rusiian hacking of voting machines propelled trump to a shocking election victory Dems, don’t get complacent. Republicans are out-pacing you in new voter registrations and they cheat. VOTE!!! This tweets not going to age well. Trump got into office utilizing election interference, The electoral college, and super delegates.

Cmkahn TRUMP just wrapped his town hall and the new news we got was: 1) He most definitely did NOT follow the testing requirements for the 1st debate 2) He definitely DOES owe $421 million & paid $750 in fed income tax 3) He will NOT disparage the domestic terror threat, QAnon Cmkahn Trump wins big in 2020

Cmkahn Now you’re just writing communist fan fiction Reuters Cmkahn Where are these numbers from? Cmkahn You have created even more Cmkahn Cotrection: billions of dollars of absolutely free media coverage elected Trump in 2016. Cmkahn He's damn wrong trump maga Landslide2020 Cmkahn Ok Biden is leading in the polls with the likely voters what about new voters or people who have not vote before and decided to vote this year? Election is too close to call and just give it to Biden. As the saying goes history has a way of repeating itself. Will see...

Cmkahn Eh ... these revelations about “Pop” Biden insisting on his cut of the swag may sway some undecideds. I know of one case already. Cmkahn However, the Repubs are much more organized this time around. Door to door, registrations, in person voting, and turnout. Cmkahn That s good news Cmkahn VoteHimOut VoteThemAllOut VoteEarly VoteBidenHarris2020

Cmkahn What if Trump wins? With all the media bias against him it would be the biggest upset in histor Cmkahn Because undecided voters already decided that they will vote for Trump Cmkahn fake news Cmkahn Reuter’s is trying hard to elect Biden. Cmkahn Is “late-deciding” a euphemism for “low-information?”

Cmkahn shut up man the silent majority will decide Cmkahn yes the same lies as last election RT such a sad biased platform Cmkahn Bad news for the UK if Biden gets in. Cmkahn Americans are voting for Biden and Kamala. VoteBidenHarris Trump is ANTI: universal healthcare, free college, Social Security, USPS, gays, Latinos, DACA, immigrants, black history, stimulus for cities, and extra $600.

Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump moving into statistical tie with Biden in FloridaPresident Donald Trump pulled into a statistical tie with Democratic rival Joe Biden in Florida, one of the election's most important battlegrounds, but Biden's lead appeared to widen in Arizona, Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls showed on Wednesday. Florida- the reason America cant have nice things! We will see. I live in Pima County. A very blue/Democratic County. I just see hardly any enthusiasm for the Biden/Harris ticket. Very few signs! I see Trump signs and flags everywhere I go.

Analysis: Donald Trump is now openly begging for votes'Unfortunately for Trump -- and down-ballot Republicans -- the 2018 midterms weren't the low ebb for the President in the eyes of suburbanites,' writes CillizzaCNN CillizzaCNN CillizzaCNN Biden benefits from protest votes in a 2 horse race but nothing to do with his leadership qualities ? CillizzaCNN

Trump on Debt Report: 'Four Hundred Million Is a Peanut' - WSJ.comLive analysis: President Trump didn't dispute a report that he is liable for more than $400 million in debt, following a question referring to a New York Times report about his tax records: “It’s a tiny percentage of my net worth” He owes it to Putin. Yea and he's just a 'little bit' overweight. Look I want to talk about Big Tech censorship and bias and how they did nothing to stop the illegal spreading of Trump's tax returns. Trump does have 400m in debt, which is not that much compared to his net worth or to that of typical debt of similarly sized firms. Why dispute?

See convicted Trump aide plead for post-election Trump pardon on TVTrump’s ‘unmasking’ probe commissioned by AG Bill Barr against the Obama administration concluded without any charges. Another investigation into the Russia probe investigators will not be concluded until after the 2020 election. MSNBC’s Ari Melber interviews former Trump deputy campaign manager Rick Gates about his decision to flip on Trump’s campaign chief, Trump’s pardon power and why so many Trump insiders have been indicted.

Barron Trump had coronavirus, first lady Melania Trump revealsThe first lady reveals in a personal essay that, 'My fear came true when [Barron] was tested again and it came up positive.” Is she voting for Biden/Harris then? Does FLOTUS plan to vote for Biden/Harris? Don the Con infects his own son by his reckless behavior!

Mary Trump Predicts How Donald Trump Would React To An Election LossThe president's niece told CNN's Don Lemon that Trump would be in for a 'rough ride.' Another credible source for the left. Don Lemon talks to niece of Trump that was financially cut off after her father passed. She is currently selling out her family in order to get paid to sustain her life. Also Don Lemon is a hack that said to calm protests because it’s hurting Democrats in the polls. Why aren't y'all talking about censorship and nypost HunterBiden