Analysis | Trump can win the 2024 nomination the way he won in 2016: Barely

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Questions about the strength of Trump's current position ignore that he doesn't need a majority of Republicans to vote for him in the 2024 primary.

This is certainly not the position in which Trump would like to find himself as speculation about the Republican field in two years’ time starts to take shape. Trump wants to box people out, for them to see him as so dominant that there’s no point in entering the race. He wants, in essence, for the 2024 primary to unfold the way the 2020 one did: a clear field that allowed him to glide toward the general election.

See the yellow area on the graph below ? That’s the under-50-percent zone. Trump’s the only winning presidential candidate embedded in it. President Biden, by contrast, won most of the primary and general election votes cast. But the system helped him in two ways. The first is that there’s a built-in advantage that goes to the winning candidate in a primary in many states. Nominations are won after candidates accrue a majority of delegates to the party convention. Often, the winner of a state, even if it’s with 45 percent of the votes cast, is given a bonus number of delegates, with the rest distributed by vote margin.

 

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Boo!

Not if he is in jail !!!!

Anyone at the head of the republicans could win, the democrats are all about toxic divisiveness, society has never been in worse shape. USA

disgusting to equate DT with an actual candidate. Why shill for him? Pls stop pushing this agenda.

We are talking about the product of a cabal, because without the illegal secret schemes and money, there would be zero chance.

Shame on America if that is true. Does integrity not mean anything now? Seriously that is shocking and disgusting.

Please people we do not need 4 years of Trump and Republican politicians getting richer and the hate Trump spews!! VOTE BLUE!!!

Does the WP want him to? It appears that they do considering how much oxygen they give him.

No it won’t be barely

He can also lose or be in prison and maybe WaPo can stop doing click bait articles.

Unbelievable!

He will lose the election the same way he did in 2020, bigly.

Well, Russia is a little busy right now. Another year, who knows. Enough Americans willing to lie for the oh great one they worship

The RNC won't support him, big money donars will flee, he'll be in jail.

He has already won it. Now the question is who his opponent going to be.

Why are you doing stories like this about a criminal?

Barely? He clobbered every Republican in the primaries.

He won by cheating. The paper ballots changed that in 2020. We voted him out then. We’ll vote him out in 2024.

Run with someone on God's side like MTJ who stands up on complexities regardless of gop approval.

Delusional by choice, or what? This over-blown, full-of-himself con artist supported by a white supremacist base with ties to (so called) 'good people on the other side', in substance attacked America's democracy Jan 6th. Pelosi called it: All roads lead to Putin'. Lock him up!

Excellent. I’d love Democrats to run against Trump.

He's dead to rights with charges that prevent him from holding office.

The Washington PostOp's is trying to sway the majority of the Republicans to vote for Trump in the primaries knowing that he has no chance for winning in the election! The WP knows that Desantis has a much better chance and are trying to wave him out! RonDesantis

No, he can’t.

09/26 is Day for Elimination of Nuclear Weapons & World Contraception Day. JEHOVOX If we knew in advance that an evildoer would be born who would threaten the world w/ a nuclear war, then it would be possible to prevent a world tragedy w/ contraception

By cheating and changing votes? That’s how he won the first time, it seems.

WAPO translation: by a mile.

For the sake of the country, I hope Trump isn't the Republican nominee. It's a lose/lose scenario. If Trump loses, he won't concede, and chaos will ensue. If Trump wins, a wannabe dictator bent on revenge will be unleashed.

He won by lying a whole lot and ppl not caring that he's a lying con man

By cheating?

WP. You’re news is trash. How about list all the reasons why he’s living in a fantasy world. Who the hell needs a leader tied up in litigation for the rest of his life.

LETS GOO TRUMP!!! YOU ARE GREAT!!!!

LETS GO TRUMP!!!!!!!!!

Now, you start to realize that character assassination is dumb, but how Biden will perform against this huge reinforced Tank ?

Giving cover to a career criminal like Trump? Jeezus. Stop legitimizing a coup leader and insurrectionist. Also someone who hasn’t denied taking American secrets? Democracy dies in your bullshit WaPo

if he cheats and steal it he could.

Trump touted his biggest accomplishment in office was not protecting the economy, not securing the borders, not protecting the country, jobs or families but his biggest accomplishment was the rich friends he made in secret ! Ypur hero at work !

For the mid-term elections, Biden released oil reserves, signed bills symbolically, and played the race and gender cards. But after the mid-term elections, the Democratic Party will abandon everyone and play the people like monkeys. The media is out of touch with reality.

Mueller proved that Russia helped him.

Clickbait

Philip Bump, you don't have to encourage him.

Nuh-uh. Not when he’s in jail.

WITH THE HELP OF MEDIA normalizing his behavior AGAIN.

2016, that's when Democrats rigged their primaries and Bernie was not allowed to run. That is when the American people found out that democracy and having one was a LIE. You may be willing to sit there and lie to the American people WAPO. But we are not going to lie to each other

Unless his diet gets him first

Just stop. He'll be in prison.

Lol, I beg to differ

Wouldn’t put money on this analysis.

Jesus eternal life trump , obama , biden weak as you or me

Trump only won with Russia help. He'll lose.

DeSantis will be the nominee and our next President

I’d take Trump over Jeb lmao

Being desperate once again? It's really quite pathetic. Here's what the sane part of America thinks about this garbage...

Just shows the sick, depraved & malignant nature of the current Republican Party. Amazing (& scary) how swiftly they have fallen into the depths of rejecting democracy.

Or not

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