Polls such as Pew’s and that Fox News poll show that Biden is the favorite. If the election were held today,
has Biden with 2-to-1 odds of winning. Shouldn’t that prompt Trump supporters to assume that he won’t prevail?Well, no, since Trump supporters — and many other Americans — don't have confidence in the accuracy of polling. To some extent, this is understandable. Polling in the 2016 election showed that Trump was likely to lose in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. He didn’t, and he won the presidency. But national polling in 2016 was
, showing Hillary Clinton with a small lead. Some of the state polls that were later criticized as inaccurate actually reflected Trump performing within the margin of error.But nuanced assessments of polling are poorly suited to combating the general sense that polling got something wrong — and, therefore, that polling this time is missing support for Trump that his base expect to see materialize on Election Day.
Now we fast-forward to Nov. 4. Results in a number of states have Trump leading in the day-of voting, including Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada and Texas. There could, in fact, be far more states where Trump is leading, including heavily blue ones, simply because of the gap in interest in mail voting between the parties.Biden’s campaign and other officials will encourage people to be patient, with hundreds of thousands of votes still outstanding.
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