Kim’s pursuit of nuclear weapons defined his first 10 years in power, but analysts say the path has left him isolated and facing perhaps the greatest challenges yet.
"I think the experience of Kim's rule for ordinary North Koreans was a moment of hope in those early years followed by regression to the mean," said Christopher Green, a Korea specialist at Leiden University in the Netherlands. "Without a big uptick in foreign capital, the cause of economic reform is almost certainly doomed," he added.Under Kim, North Korea conducted four of its six nuclear weapons' tests - including what appears to be its first hydrogen bomb - and developed a series of intercontinental ballistic missiles with the range to strike as far as the United States.
Kim will likely continue to "play tough" in nuclear diplomacy because further nuclear weapons development will increase his political leverage and bargaining power both in negotiations and during stalemates, said Duyeon Kim, with the U.S.-based Center for a New American Security. "Despite Kim’s preference of diversifying North Korea’s international partnerships, he is likely to continue relying heavily on support from China and a small number of other like-minded countries," he said.In his early years, Kim Jong Un experimented with economic reform in order to generate the surpluses he needed to run the patronage networks that sustain autocratic rule, said Green.
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