Analysis: Hong Kong's 'zero-COVID' success now worsens strains of Omicron spike

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Hong Kong until recently had an enviable record battling COVID-19, but as an Omicron wave now overwhelms the city, the steps that saved lives are making life unbearable for many of its 7.4 million people.

Like an immune system overreacting and harming the person it is meant to protect, the "dynamic zero-COVID" policies that had crushed the virus in Hong Kong have contributed to current woes, experts say. Patients lie in beds in cold, wet parking lots outside overflowing hospitals, isolation facilities are filling up and thousands queue for hours outside testing venues.

In return, most people in the global financial hub could go about their work and social lives with few restrictions. "Once effective vaccinations became available, the negative framing and policy around zero-covid adversely impacted vaccination rates, especially in the vulnerable," he said. "The messaging was not only unscientific, it paradoxically increased the risk to population health."

Asymptomatic carriers may now go to quarantine facilities or even home and close contacts may isolate at home.Plans for mass-testing from next month will likely be ineffective, some epidemiologists say, without a full mainland-style city lockdown - something Lam has ruled out. Zero-COVID messaging, some epidemiologists fear, may encourage complacency and false hopes among the largely unvaccinated elderly that the city may again become virus-free and stay that way. More than 60% of residents over age 80 have not been vaccinated, although some 85% of the entire population has had at least one shot.

"It's insane and cruel," said a 41-year-old resident whose family went through five weeks of hospital and government quarantine, including separation from their two toddlers.Hong Kong has asked Beijing for help. More than a hundred million rapid tests are on the way from the mainland, and the authorities plan to boost testing, build more isolation facilities and ensure food supplies after vegetable shortages this month.

 

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