U.S. officials have warned that Moscow could launch an attack on Ukraine after amassing more than 100,000 troops close to its neighbour's border, with the West preparing heavy sanctions.
Without access to Russia's airways, experts say airlines face having to divert flights south while avoiding areas of tension in the Middle East - adding significant cost at a time when airlines are reeling from the pandemic. But the scenario is a reminder that Russia's size and position on the aviation map gives it leverage not available to the Soviet Union when economies were less integrated, according to Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
"Every one of those operations requires advance clearance and that's not always routinely granted. And there's every reason to believe that if things got serious some of those requests could just go unanswered," analyst Robert Mann said.Russia's 8,000 air traffic controllers handled 194,296 transit flights, or 532 overflights a day, on average in 2021.
If there is an emergency, we have no choice but to avoid Russia and fly the southern route," said Yuji Hirako, president and chief executive of All Nippon Airways Co Ltd. "Since the demand for international flights is so low due to the coronavirus pandemic, we may choose not to fly in the event of an emergency."
Even as some airlines began avoiding Ukraine on Monday, leasing companies were eyeing larger risks in Russia.Domhnal Slattery, chief executive of lessor Avolon, said his biggest concern was the potential for sanctions involving SWIFT, which would disrupt international payment transfers.
Source: News Formal (newsformal.com)
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