America’s political polarization could cost the U.S. economy

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A former Biden economist quantifies what it would mean if global investors lose confidence in the U.S.

If that were to change, even just a little bit, it would be awfully expensive, warns a new paper from a former Biden White House economist.The U.S. enjoys a "safe harbor premium." It is viewed globally as among the most sound and stable places on Earth in which to invest. That results in lower borrowing costs for U.S. citizens, companies and government entities, and more abundant foreign investment.

Will courts enforce contracts fairly? Will my funds be expropriated by a political leader? Will the central bank allow hyperinflation?State of play: It's one of only a handful of countries of which that can be said, a list that includes Canada, Australia and Switzerland.Other wealthy, advanced economies have a significant premium. It's 0.72 percentage points for France and over 3 percentage points for Italy and Greece.

By Tedeschi's calculations, if the U.S. risk premium rose merely to the level of Britain, over 10 years it would reduce Americans' wealth by $50,000 per household and reduce GDP by 1 percent.

Source: Financial Digest (financialdigest.net)

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