Like many of us, she was going to work, seeing friends and family.Before she developed any symptoms, she had passed the virus on to her friends Mikah and Steph, as well as her grandad Terry.On average, without social distancing in place, scientific modelling suggests that people infected with coronavirus would pass it on to another three people.
The Imperial modelling also predicts that out of the 100 people needing hospital treatment, about 30 would need a critical-care bed. They found that if people experiencing symptoms, and everyone who lived with them, stayed at home for two weeks, while anyone over 70 reduced their social contacts to a minimum, the impact on the NHS would be reduced. This is similar to the measures the UK government introduced before the lockdown.
However, in places where demand happened to be above average, NHS services would still be under extraordinary pressure. There are many assumptions in the Imperial College model about how the virus is transmitted, and what proportion of people will comply with the restrictions now being placed on them.
For this reason, among Angie's network, cases multiplied and spread quickly - soon extending far beyond her original community. But the problem the NHS has been facing is that for each group of 30 patients in need of a critical-care bed, there would be just one such bed available when the epidemic reached its peak.This would mean NHS doctors facing impossible choices about who receives potentially life-saving treatment, and who doesn't.
The Imperial team also found that if social distancing measures were applied to all age groups - not just to those over 70 - schools and universities were closed, and the two-week quarantine period applied to households in which any member had symptoms, the NHS would be able to cope.However, in places where demand happened to be above average, NHS services would still be under extraordinary pressure.
what about if Angie sits on public transport with passengers who have come in from the airport from countries where there is high viral spread of Covic-19 ? Or Angie is the bus driver on the public transport repeatedly carrying passengers from planes from international airports ?
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