For starters, cooler air is expected to descend from Canada and waft over the eastern United States. Ordinarily, a severe weather pattern is composed of cold air over the western United States at high altitudes and comparatively milder, humid surface air banked up in the East. That allows lobes of western chill to pinch off and drift east, where they kick up pockets of unstable air into showers and thunderstorms. The opposite is the case presently, cutting back the risk of storms.
Moreover, the upper-air pattern over the United States will become one dominated by zonal, or west to east, flow. That means the jet stream will be oriented roughly west to east, devoid of the energetic dips and kinks that whip through it. Those “troughs” are integral for allowing upper-air disturbances to hitch a ride east.
The jet stream is ordinarily the divider between warm air to the south and frigid air farther north. Cold air flows south within the jet stream’s dips as warm air surges northward in the ridgelike crests. That allows for punctuated clashes of the air masses. Without any waves in the jet stream, there’s much less west to east temperature contrast — instead, it becomes a pallid, gradual south to north gradation.
There may be some severe weather over the central Plains toward the middle of next week, but there are no clear signs of a notable tornado risk — though it’s still too far out in the future for many details. The next significant wave of storms that looks poised to pose widespread severe weather could swing through the southern United States by the weekend of April 23.
Before then, a long-range model used by the Storm Prediction Center simulates a dearth of active weather in the next seven to 10 days. This model output is updated each day.
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