A 'U,' a 'V' or maybe a Nike Swoosh? Economists try to predict what a recovery will look like

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As data points come in, they'll largely tell a story about the present and the near past. What they won't provide, at least for a few months, is a reliable portrait of the future.

The worst of the economic news is yet to come, with slumps in employment and GDP to be the worst since the Great Depression.Information on pollution, mass transit use and shipping will provide a real-time look into how quickly the economy is recovering.

The worst news, in fact, is yet to come, with unemployment rates higher than anything the U.S. has seen since the Great Depression and a collapse in gross domestic product also beyond anything seen since that period. "We're approaching the nadir in terms of the worst being passed. That likely will happen in May, and then we'll slowly begin climbing out of this," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "We're not going to have a depression. That's a good start for what the recovery looks like."

The recovery, then, might look different than what anyone is anticipating. For his part, Brusuelas is in the "Nike swoosh" camp that sees a more gradual, but still aggressive recovery. While there are important differences for economies separated by the Atlantic, the moves toward normalization can provide lessons in terms of consumer behavior and what the coronavirus will do after six weeks of global isolation across societies and nations.

Indeed, the market practically ricocheted off its crisis lows in late-March and, while off in the early part of this week,. What's been more unusual has been the leadership — energy shares, which are up 32% over the past month at a time when U.S. oil prices actually went negative for the first time ever, reflecting a huge supply glut and plunge in demand.

 

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Nike Swoosh! I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction, what does it mean ? Probably, recovery'll look like nothing ever seen, that depend on worst situation of all times, that's why we gonna see what it likes when slumps finish, I guess Slumps

Nike Swoosh! I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction, what does it mean ? Probably, recovery'll look like nothing ever seen, that depend on worst situation of all times, that's why we gonna see what it likes when slumps finish, I guess Slumps

Nike Swoosh ? I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction, what does it mean ? Probably, recovery'll look like nothing ever seen, that depend on worst situation of all times, that's why we gonna see what it likes when slumps finish, I guess Slumps

Nike Swoosh !? I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction, what does it mean ? Probably, recovery'll look like nothing ever seen, that depend on worst situation of all times, that's why we gonna see what it likes when slumps finish, I guess. Slumps

Nike Swoosh !? I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction, what does it mean ? Probably, recovery'll look like nothing ever seen, that depend on worst situation of all times, that's why we gonna see what it likes when slumps finish, I guess. Slumps Wtf

Nike Swoosh !? I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction, what does it mean ? Probably, recovery'll look like nothing ever seen, that depend on worst situation of all times, that's why we gonna see what it likes when slumps finish, I expect Slumps

Nike Swoosh !? I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction, what does it mean ? Probably, recovery'll look like nothing ever seen, that depend on worst situation of all times, that's why we gonna see what it likes when slumps finish, I guess. Slumps

Nike Swoosh !? I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction, what does it mean ? Probably, recovery'll look like nothing ever seen, that depend on worst situation of all times, that's why we gonna see what it likes when slumps finish, I guess. Slumps Wtf? Swoosh

Nike Swoosh !? I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction, what does it mean ? Probably, recovery'll look like nothing ever seen, that depend on worst situation of all times, that's why we gonna see what it likes when slumps finish, I guess. Slumps

Nike Swoosh !? I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction, what does it mean ? Probably, recovery'll look like nothing ever seen, that depend on worst situation of all times, that's why we gonna see what it likes when slumps finish, I guess Slumps

Yes, all know Q2 is grim. Attention on H2 2020 and beyond. As on-again, off-again regime of social distancing, lockdown is likely, economic recoverly will be more muted than hoped, at least initially.

Nike Swoosh !? I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction, what does it mean ? Probably, recovery'll look like nothing ever seen, that depend on worst situation of all times, that's why we gonna see what it likes when slumps finish, I guess Slumps

Nike Swoosh !? I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction, what does it mean ? Probably, recovery'll look like nothing ever seen, that depend on worst situation of all times, that's why we gonna see what it likes when slumps finish, I guess Slumps

Nike Swoosh ? I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction, what does it mean ? Probably recovery'll look like nothing depend on worst situation of all times.

Nike swoosh ? I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction, what does it mean ? Probably recovery'll look like nothing depend on worst situation of all times

It's not going to get better if they open things up either. As soon as cases rise people that are already reluctant will swear off going anywhere.

Many of the multinationals will play a crucial role ,hopefully they will not cry about the lockdown/business loss for a quarter. Mainly daily wage labours will be impacted.A lot needs to be taken care at a grassroot level.

All it took was a global pandemic to slow down what was a massive economic machine

Because of the flu. Death numbers are lies. Power mad government is out of control

M recovery

is america great again or what

Buy, says Wall Street, again

Don’t Help Out Rich People, People are in Awful Wreck & Nobodycares TrumpPressConference 2020election BREAKING HELP Test 4 GOP LIE USA RENTRELIEF StrayKids Democrats BlueWave2020 DumpTrump2020 Biden2020 accountability Nobody Is Doing Anything To Help US BAD

Yep...tired of the “winning”...

Stop with these bullshit letter recoveries

Really? Did something like killing the economy?

Back to work! Overreacting

I am thinking more of a backwards N extended to the downside

I agree, let me check these S&P numbers.....nevermind I guess it’s fine.

No shit - almost all businesses have been forced to close

Baked in

Swoosh for me at best

returntonormal

bubbles and manias

M

A “L” is more like it!

'Predict'...that is the point! Stop it, you are not Nostradamus.

Cursive 'r' ...solved

Y

Such a stupid question. With or without stay at home this baby ain't turning until 2021 at the earliest unless you can show me a miracle cure ASAP!

W

F

It ain’t coming back for a while.

Long and painful. More L than U

Con la suerte que tenemos seguro que es en forma de U

It will look like a massive FED balance sheet and Government deficit. Yeahhhhh!

How about this fat 'L'?

How about no recovery in the next 5-10 years?

L

This of course assumes we do in fact recover...

Maybe an EKG chart

A Nike swoosh is the economic comeback recovery symbol lol 💯😎✌👌

Would be cool if Trump writes his name in the S&P...

A check mark.

Nike Swoosh ? I have never heard such a silly definition or prediction

It's an L at best

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