A ray of hope in the coronavirus curve

HEADLINES ABOUT the new coronavirus that started in China are grim. More than 1,000 people have died, exceeding the toll from the SARS outbreak in 2003. Despite stringent controls on movement, there are 64,000 confirmed or suspected cases of infections in China. And it is spreading around the world. But there is some good news: the number of new cases reported daily in China has been on a downward trend since February 4th.

Trying to forecast the trajectory of a new virus is complex, with scant initial information about how infectious it is. Several scientists made valiant attempts based on early data from China. Some warned that it might not peak until May, but that was before China implemented strict containment measures. The more pessimistic ones now look too gloomy. Cheng-Chih Hsu, a chemist at National Taiwan University, plugged different scenarios into a simple model for estimating the spread of epidemics .

It is too early to rest easy. SARS was never truly brought under control until warm summer air helped kill the virus. This time around, there are, as ever, questions about the reliability of official data showing the slowdown in infections. More worryingly, China’s apparent success is largely down to its lockdown of broad swathes of the country, which is hurting the economy.

This didn't age well.

Or has accurate Wuhan Conaravirus case reporting peaked?

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If the data source is from china, there's a HIGH chance it's fabricated.

So Trump was right ?

Are you serious? They stopped including asymptomatic cases in the official count two days ago - even if a positive test. Of course it’s a downward trend.

Can't believe reputable outlets would use Chinese data, with a presumption it's credible.

visionorg Unsurprising coming after China’s directive to no longer count an asymptomatic positive test as “confirmed.” This necessarily lowered the number of confirmed in the last few days.

They admitted that they changed how they counted cases. Now cases who test positive but are without symptoms are no longer counted. They changed the standard so of course the numbers went down. But this is comparing apples and oranges. Varying standards can not be compared.

Lolololol....it's because they're now under reporting and have basically quit testing anyone who isn't dying.

Because they freakin changed the criteria to which a case would be confirmed

While people cast doubt on the official data, official trends are a strong indication of the Chinese government’s level of confidence in dealing with the epidemic.

It is a little hard to believe the official news. Its disconcerting, though typical of the Economist, that they don't mention the doubt in their presented data. And I am a little worried that there are other places in the world besides China where it is just getting started.

Very interesting to watch which outlets publish data from China and which .... don't.

nard_info This is the truth they want you to believe...

Ok, what you say! Geez! It would be better if you guys don’t even mention. No matter what we know what is coming and the elderly is f...up!

someone get these people some limes!

This is a warning message: the data provided by Chinese Government all fake; be Alert, Shall Stop Greedy, Shall not try to make any money from there; the people there not confessed, they not blessed

Fake News

yeah right!

Remember that there is currently no normal life going on. Every one is at home in quarantine!

Yeah, they’ve never had a reputation for misinformation...

Decreasing trend for new confirmed cases each day. Seems very promising for eliminating 2019-nCoV!

If their hospitals and makeshift hospitals are full and they only base statistics on what is in the hospitals.......of course the rate is going to level off. Who in their right mind would want to go into any of these contaminated hospitals to get checked. It would be suicide.

The data provided by Chinese Government all fake; there is no slower rate.

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