A Kremlin shake-up of Russia's Defense Ministry comes at a key moment in the Ukraine war

Standing in his dress uniform in the back of his Aurus convertible, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was driven around Red Square to review the troops during last week's Victory Day parade. It was to be his last inspection in that role. Over the weekend, President Vladimir Putin replaced Shoigu — the 68-year-old was the longest serving member of his Cabinet — in a rare Kremlin shake-up that took place even as a Russian offensive in northeastern Ukraine was making gains.

Shoigu’s job seemed to be in jeopardy early in the 2022 invasion as Russia suffered battlefield setbacks that drew the ire of Russia's hawks. He and the chief of the military’s General Staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, were widely blamed for the failure to capture Kyiv as well as a hasty retreat by Russian troops from northeastern and southern Ukraine amid a stiff counteroffensive.

The Kremlin sought to ease the widespread bewilderment over choosing Belousov as defense minister by emphasizing that Gerasimov — the chief of the General Staff — actually directs the fighting in Ukraine. “The chief of the General Staff is in many ways the key person who reports directly to the commander-in-chief, Putin, and the minister is really just to ensure that the military have what they need,” said Mark Galeotti, head of the Mayak Intelligence consultancy.

Putin likely expects Belousov to better integrate the Defense Ministry’s agenda with broader economic policies, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank. “This effort sets conditions for a fuller economic mobilization, suggesting that the Kremlin continues to prepare for a protracted war in Ukraine,” it said. Alexandra Prokopenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center also sees Belousov’s appointment as a sign the Kremlin envisions a long war.

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