is almost never good news. In Mali the descent into violence accelerated dramatically in March 2012, when soldiers mutinied and launched attacks on the presidential palace, the state broadcaster and a military barracks in Bamako, the capital. The then president, Amadou Toumani Touré, was forced into exile. Within months, jihadists had taken over much of northern Mali.
That seemed to have saved Mali from a terrible fate: the state’s complete collapse into the hands of fanatics. But the experience of 2012 could repeat itself. On August 18th soldiers in Bamako again left their barracks to overthrow the government. The president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, who came to power in elections in 2013, was arrested with his prime minister, and forced to resign . As in 2012 the coup plotters have promised new elections. But, as then, the result may be more violence.
At least 4,000 people were killed in the Sahel last year, around 40% of them in Mali. Since 2012 violence has spread from the north to the centre of the country—and across the region. The state has not only failed to stop the killing, it may have been complicit in it. Last year about 160 people, mostly ethnic Fulanis, were massacred by a Dogon militia in Ogossagou, a village in central Mali. Mr Keita promised such atrocities would be stopped.
A state that does not protect its people from massacres is scarcely likely to succeed on other fronts. This coup was preceded by months of civil protests prompted by a decision of the constitutional court to overturn the results in 31 seats of parliamentary elections held in March. The court handed many back to Mr Keita’s party. But the protests were also fuelled by anger towards a government seen as crooked and feeble.
Mali’s security problems are far from unique in Africa. For over a decade Nigeria has struggled with Boko Haram’s insurgency. Kenya is still afflicted by terrorists in its Somali north-east. An Islamic State affiliate is on the rise in Mozambique. The fighters in such cases are invariably drawn from people with no stake in the state. The West has proffered soldiers, equipment and intelligence, but has done much less to encourage governments to settle grievances.
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