Jalen Green and the Houston Rockets have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA recently and are favored by double-digts on Monday night.
We are three weeks away from the end of the NBA season, and the motivation levels of the teams are becoming more predictable. The teams still in postseason consideration, particularly those in battles for playoff spots, are highly motivated on a nightly basis. The end of the marathon is in sight and every game has a direct, tangible effect on the short-term future.
Teams headed for the lottery, on the other hand, tend to be more motivated by looking to the offseason and the future. Young players are getting more run to see if they can use this time to develop; players in contract years are trying out for their next employer; and players with even the slightest injury are more incentivized to rest of and get healthy as opposed to pushing through.
One outcome is a slate like Monday night's, featuring 11 games where nine of them have spreads of at least 8.5 points. The games featuring a postseason-bound squad against a lottery-bound squad have huge spreads, and for good reason. Blowouts are usually bad for player props since fewer players play full minutes, but Monday's column is dominated by team-level predictions. As always, let's dig deeper into the matchups to identify some good candidates to outperform expectation.
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