2022 hurricane forecast....and the winner is....

Of course, when the storms cranked up they revved big and Canada recorded its strongest hurricane in history with Fiona on Sept. 20. Then Ian in late September hit Florida as the deadliest storm since 1935 and racked up a $50 billion damage tab. Nicole in early November would decimate Florida beaches already tender from Ian’s wrath.

So what’s Zeng and Davis’ secret sauce? In a phrase: sea surface temperatures, or SSTs. Particularly for their April forecasts where they look at both Atlantic and Pacific Ocean water temperatures and assimilate past year’s data with ensemble forecasts from the European model. This year, those SSTs were fairly normal or just above and so their forecast followed that lead. Unlike other forecasters, Zeng doesn’t feel wind forecasts are as reliable for early season predictions.

“Every year, we re-calibrate our models using one more year of data . Our results are also overall consistent with our expectation that the results in 2022 would be around average - similar to 2019. So we know our results would be good most of the time.”“Here is the summary of our record prepared in June 2022:

“Since 2017, when we started issuing forecasts for ACE and major hurricanes, our average error has been 30.0 units and 0.4 major hurricanes .

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