Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. Forecasts do not add to 100 in some races due to rounding.
In the Louisiana race and Georgia’s special election, multiple candidates from each party are facing off on Election Day. If no one gets a majority, two candidates go to a runoff.See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.
Each party's majority chances include scenarios where the Senate is evenly split and that party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast. As the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls 😬 — the forecast will get less uncertain.Leading candidate’s forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in each state. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome.Fun fact: Incumbents who were appointed to their seat lose more often than elected incumbents, so they don’t get an incumbency boost in our model.
FiveThirtyEight I remember 2016 election night on ABC as 538 was commenting on each state’s results as the dominoes fell in a direction opposite of their predictions. Watching that and the look on GeorgeStephanopoulos face was quite entertaining.
FiveThirtyEight 538 with Notradumbass Silver? Yeah good luck with that.
FiveThirtyEight Still is before the Millions of Silent Majority show up as they always do. We will see you Nov :)
FiveThirtyEight Nobody pays any attention to you or your crooked polls...All the MSM is IRRELEVANT!!! 😂😂😂...and we are voting in hordes for the Republicans!!
FiveThirtyEight Good thing about Senate elections is there's no electoral college
FiveThirtyEight Slightltly and not completely Where do we stand?
FiveThirtyEight They are always favored to win everything and guess wat they won’t
FiveThirtyEight Vote! Vote! Vote! These “forecasts” mean NOTHING!!!! Just VOTE!
FiveThirtyEight Yea yea we get it, Democrats are expected to win it all...MSM is a joke. Can't wait for them to blame Russia in November
FiveThirtyEight I'll leave this here...
FiveThirtyEight the ALL BIGOT CHANNEL........................ if it's not our opinion, it's not an option
FiveThirtyEight The face you make when your polling forecast is garbage..
FiveThirtyEight JohnLeguizamo
FiveThirtyEight So now this just POPS UP. Funny ABC forgets we can read and have seen all the failed Democratic races. HOUSE and SENATE will be Republican again!
FiveThirtyEight Eff this pessimism. ¡Rooting For Supermajorities!
FiveThirtyEight Keep Hallucinating
FiveThirtyEight Slightly isn't good enough. Make it a tidal wave, again.
FiveThirtyEight LOL...
FiveThirtyEight Fake ass news abc you and cnn should go ahead and get with Zillow and be looking for property in Canada
FiveThirtyEight All republicans should be defeated and left to rot for the next 25 years. Let them rise like the Phoenix if they can.
FiveThirtyEight Please, please... make it true.
FiveThirtyEight God Help Us So Many Educated Believe Book Knowledge out Beats God Republican and Demarcated has Nothing to do with Common Sense and Direction It's very Embarrassing to See Older Men act like this Over Election Jesus knows the Laws You Made was not for Us here in the USA
FiveThirtyEight Don't believe the news - Vote
FiveThirtyEight Wow..I can't believe that many people want high crime with defunded police and high taxes on everything you buy..and more wars in the Middle East...I don't get it.
FiveThirtyEight NEWS
FiveThirtyEight Liberals have managed to fuck up things in this country. Along with msm help. They won’t win the senate or the house.
FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight Nobody believes that.
FiveThirtyEight More “accurate” polls from FiveThirtyEight and .🙄 Nov. 3rd come swiftly. I’m so tired of all the BS!
FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight 💪🏽🇺🇸💣🗯💯😉
FiveThirtyEight Dont matter vote. Vote out every Republican who sat by and watched as this fascist orange mango destroys our democracy.
FiveThirtyEight when theyre wrong about this, will you stop pushing their garbage like its gospel?
FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight Don’t worry Russian disinformation campaign will ramp up to make sure the GOP retains control
FiveThirtyEight Even if the GOP lose the majority they are very good at blocking, filibustering and doing whatever they want to stop bills from passing or moving forward. No one can deny that Mitch McConnell is just soo good at that.
FiveThirtyEight Flipping the Senate is imperative!!! Hokahey!!! BIG BLUE TSUNAMI 2020!!!
FiveThirtyEight 🙏🏼
FiveThirtyEight Yeah. Keep up the propaganda. Goebbels must have been proud of you guys.
FiveThirtyEight Good, I can't wait to VOTE, looking forward to help make this a reality!
FiveThirtyEight lol dems aint winning anything this year. we know your tyring to make it 'seem close' for 'reasons'
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