2 key Bitcoin trading indicators suggest BTC is ready for a 62% upside move

1/20/2022 7:45:00 AM

Would you take a 61% gain in Bitcoin? It might come soon.

Would you take a 61% gain in Bitcoin? It might come soon.

BTC derivatives metrics currently mirror late-September readings which preceded a strong 62% move in Bitcoin price.

) has been below $45,000 for 14 days and is currently 40% below the $69,000 all-time high. This movement holds similarities to late-September 2021, when Bitcoin price flat-lined for 11 days and was 36% below the previous $64,900 all-time high on April 14.

Bitcoin price at Coinbase, USD. Source: TradingViewTo understand whether the current price momentum mimics late September, traders should start by analyzing the Bitcoin futures contracts premium, which is also known as"basis." Unlike a perpetual contract, these fixed-calendar futures do not have a funding rate, so their price will differ vastly from regular spot exchanges.

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does that mean the whales are going to HIT IT down again?

2 key Bitcoin trading indicators suggest BTC is ready for a 62% upside moveBTC derivatives metrics currently mirror late-September readings which preceded a strong 62% move in Bitcoin price.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bitcoin at Risk of Further WeaknessThe BTC/USD pair remained under pressure even as the closely watched North American Bitcoin Conference kicked off in Miami.

Bitcoin hodlers 'under siege' at $42K as 30% of BTC supply flips from profit to lossBitcoin hodlers are looking after 30% of the BTC supply at a loss — a historically significant phenomenon.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bitcoin Very Bearish Below $39,800The BTC/USD remained under pressure as a decline in key global assets continued.

BTC, XRP, and BNB Price Analysis for January 18Which coin could grow during the ongoing market correction? XrpYoyo ANT159694954 nuonrg WillyWonkaXRP RippleXrpie Dave_Jonez_02 BNB Pain_Alive_BNB Binance_DEX ANT159694954 nuonrg WillyWonkaXRP RippleXrpie Dave_Jonez_02 Pain_Alive_BNB BabyDoge ANT159694954 nuonrg WillyWonkaXRP RippleXrpie Dave_Jonez_02 Pain_Alive_BNB BabyDogeCoin

El Salvador: 70.2% Have Little to No Confidence in BTC | CoinMarketCap70.2% of Salvadoran consumers have 'little to no confidence' in Bitcoin 😬 And just 9% say their economic situation has improved since BTC became legal tender 👇 BabyDogeCoin ❤️❤️🔥🔥🔥 from the article: A total of 1,298 Salvadorans were polled for the research between Dec. 7 and 17 — before the substantial falls seen in Bitcoin's price over the past few weeks..... :P total pop of Salvador is 6.5M so that 1.3k people study means nothing not even 1% of total pop

BTC ) has been below $45,000 for 14 days and is currently 40% below the $69,000 all-time high..is trading at $42,200, which is substantially lower than the all-time high of over $68,000.) hodlers face a crucial week in more ways than one as $42,000 rekindles a familiar battle.

This movement holds similarities to late-September 2021, when Bitcoin price flat-lined for 11 days and was 36% below the previous $64,900 all-time high on April 14. Bitcoin price at Coinbase, USD. Source: TradingView To understand whether the current price momentum mimics late September, traders should start by analyzing the Bitcoin futures contracts premium, which is also known as"basis. Analysts cite the performance of Bitcoin to profit-taking among investors who had spectacular returns in 2021." Unlike a perpetual contract, these fixed-calendar futures do not have a funding rate, so their price will differ vastly from regular spot exchanges. By measuring the expense gap between futures and the regular spot market, a trader can gauge the level of bullishness in the market." "This magnitude of 'top heavy supply' was defended in two instances in the last few years.

Excessive optimism from buyers tends to make the three-month futures contract to trade at a 15% or higher annualized premium (basis). Recently, the Federal Reserve and other central banks have signaled that they will hike interest rates this year. Bitcoin 3-month futures premium in Sept. 2021. Source: laevitas. Another concern is that many big institutional investors have stayed in the sidelines recently.ch For example, earlier in September, the basis rate ranged from 9% to 13%, indicating confidence, but on Sept. "The reaction from this level will likely provide insight into the medium-term direction of the Bitcoin market," the newsletter continued.

29, right before Bitcoin broke out above $45,000, the 3-month futures premium was at 6.5%. The regulatory picture will likely become clearer in the next few weeks. Generally, readings below 5% are typically deemed bearish, so a 6.5% reading in late September meant investors were displaying low confidence. Bitcoin 3-month futures premium. Meanwhile, the BTC/USD pair moved sideways during the North America conference. "A hodler-dominated market".

Source: laevitas.ch Regarding the current market conditions, there are a lot of similarities to September 2021, right before Bitcoin broke $45,000 and initiated a 62% rally. First, the current Bitcoin 3-month futures premium stands at 6. The sell-off accelerated after the coin managed to move below the key support level at 56,670, which was the lowest level on October 27th.5% and the indicator recently ranged from 9% to 11%, reflecting mild optimism. Unexpected positive market moves happen when investors least expect it and this is precisely the scenario happening right now.

To confirm whether this move was specific to the instrument, one should also analyze options markets. Top Forex Brokers. The 25% delta skew compares equivalent call (buy) and put (sell) options. The indicator will turn positive when"fear" is prevalent because the protective put options premium is higher than the call options. Related: The opposite holds when market makers are bullish, causing the 25% delta skew to shift to the negative area. Readings between negative 8% and positive 8% are usually deemed neutral.

Deribit Bitcoin options 25% delta skew in Sept. 2021. Source: laevitas.ch The 25% delta skew ranged near 10% by late Sept. 2021, indicating distress from options traders.

Market makers and arbitrage desks were overcharging for protective put (bearish) positions. Deribit Bitcoin options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch According to the current 25% delta skew indicator, options traders are neutral. However, on Jan.

10 the metric touched the 8% positive threshold, signaling a mild bearishness. Derivatives metrics show that the current market conditions resemble late-September when Bitcoin reversed a 24-day downtrend and initiated a 62% rally in the following three weeks. Will this phenomenon repeat itself? Bitcoin bulls certainly hope so. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the .