Women’s NCAA Tournament projections: Model picks every team’s chances to make each round

It’s time to pick your women’s NCAA Tournament bracket. We’ve got plenty of general advice on how to pick a bracket, but today I’m digging into the math for each women’s team in the field of 68 and their chances of winning each round. The women’s tournament is more competitive every year, and this year my model predicts some upsets. South Carolina is my favorite to win the tourney — nothing controversial there. But after that, my model diverges from the odds.

1% 22.5% 52.0% 74.4% 97.3% 1.7% 6.6% 15.9% 39.7% 77.6% 98.0% 1.4% 5.4% 12.6% 31.9% 64.4% 96.4% 1.3% 3.1% 11.4% 21.6% 65.8% 96.9% 0.7% 3.0% 8.0% 17.2% 52.9% 90.9% 0.4% 1.9% 5.6% 12.9% 42.6% 84.5% 0.6% 1.7% 7.6% 24.8% 60.0% 91.6% 0.4% 1.7% 4.5% 13.1% 26.6% 68.8% 0.3% 1.4% 3.9% 8.5% 21.6% 75.3% 0.4% 1.2% 4.1% 20.2% 57.8% 91.2% 0.2% 1.2% 3.8% 12.6% 32.6% 82.7% 0.3% 1.0% 3.3% 8.8% 58.8% 88.2% 0.1% 0.9% 3.0% 11.0% 26.8% 85.6% 0.1% 0.5% 2.6% 10.1% 20.5% 70.9% 0.2% 0.5% 1.8% 9.3% 17.9% 71.2% 0.1% 0.

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