THE SPEED of the economic bounce-back from the enormous recession of 2020 has taken many forecasters by surprise. Output across the 38 mostly rich OECD countries combined probably surpassed its pre-crisis level a few months ago. The average unemployment rate across the club, at 5.7%, is in line with the post-war average. Aggregate household income, adjusted for inflation, is above its pre-crisis level.
Granular data help fill in the picture. The change in household income gives a sense of how well families have done, as it includes not just earnings from employment but also handouts from governments. Our measure is in real terms, which adjusts for reduced purchasing power as a result of recent surges in inflation.
Some governments more than made up for people’s lost labour income by sending them vast amounts of money. That was America’s strategy: although unemployment soared as the economy locked down, households received more than $2trn in government transfers this year and last, in the form of topped-up unemployment benefits and stimulus cheques. Canada did something similar.
Capital spending, our fourth measure, provides a gauge of businesses’ optimism about the future. Some countries are in the middle of a capex boom: in America, for instance, entrepreneurs are spotting opportunities created by the pandemic, and companies are spending big on technologies that make working from home more efficient. In October Goldman Sachs, a bank, forecast that S&P 500 companies would spend 18% more on capex and research and development in 2022 than they did in 2019.
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