, after the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive last summer. That now seems optimistic. There is an alarming possibility that a big new Russian push in the next few months could punch through Ukraine’s defences and deep into the country.in February, a bitterly fought-over coking town in Donetsk province, Russian forces have been pressing hard across several axes in eastern Ukraine.
Across the front, Russia is firing at least five shells for every Ukrainian one. Although the Biden administration’s support bill remains hostage to electoral politics, Europe is only belatedly rising to the challenge. With Russia now churning out some 3m artillery shells a year and receiving additional stocks from North Korea and Iran, Europe expects to be able to produce just 1.4m shells a year by the end of 2024, rising to 2m late next year.
Ukraine also urgently needs more ways to hit targets in Crimea and logistics hubs deep behind enemy lines. It has probably used up a large proportion of the Storm Shadow and Scalp cruise missiles that Britain and France donated. They showed their value again on March 24th when two more large Russian landing ships were hit off the occupied port of Sevastopol. Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has dug in his heels over the supply of the even more powerful Taurus missiles.
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