Tories on course to be reduced to fewer than 100 MPs at general election, poll suggests

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak leaves Downing Street to attend the weekly session of Prime Ministers Qustions in the House of Commons in London, on Wednesday, 20 March, 2024. The 15,000-person poll was used to create a seat-by-seat breakdown, which indicated the Conservatives would be wiped out in Scotland and Wales and hold just 98 seats in England.

The poll suggests the Scottish National Party would pick up 41 seats, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.In an analysis which will fuel Conservative unease about the threat from Reform UK, the survey suggested Richard Tice’s party will come second in seven seats and achieve an overall vote share of 8.5%, just behind the Liberal Democrats on 10.4%

Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps would all lose their seats, according to the study, which used a multilevel regression and post-stratification process to model constituency-level results. In Mr Sunak’s new Richmond and Northallerton seat, which, based on the 2019 results should be solidly Conservative, he has just a 2.4% lead over Labour, while Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has just a 1% margin over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat.

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