They are but one element of a Russian force that is perhaps 450-strong, says a French military official, who adds that most are mercenaries from Wagner Group. This is a company founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a crony of President Vladimir Putin. It is reportedly being paid $10m a month in Mali, much of it under a goons-for-gold deal. Mali’s government insists it has no hired guns fighting for it and that the Russians are there as trainers officially sent by their government.
Part of the difficulty is that Mali is a perfect target for Russian influence. Colonel Assimi Goïta, who runs the country, toppled Mali’s elected president in mid-2020. He then installed himself as president with a second coup last year. His junta, some of whose members were trained in Russia, had promised to hold elections in February. But then it said it would postpone them, perhaps until December 2025.
Russia, which is already the biggest arms supplier to sub-Saharan Africa, is widening its security ties. Last year it signed military co-operation deals with Ethiopia and Nigeria, Africa’s two most populous countries. Ethiopia’s government is angered by Western criticism of atrocities in its civil war; Nigeria’s leaders are grumpy that America paused an arms sale over human-rights abuses by Nigerian forces.
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