More basic models have been released for areas including Westminster, Chelsea, Fulham and Kensington.The researchers used data collected from an NHS trust to create an 80-day forecast covering a ‘very wide range of local intervention types’ from shutting pubs to restricting individual households.
Dr Derek Groen, a lecturer in computer simulation at Brunel University and part of the FACS team, said: ‘The models definitely see a second wave in almost all cases, although it looks much less deep than the first wave, but it could be more prolonged.’Theatres in the city remain shut under lockdown laws
The modelling used findings from current scientific studies but can be updated in line with new research by whoever uses the code, Dr Groen added.‘We can put in a number, say, 20%, then run the simulation – but if people want to put in a different number, they can just do more runs and vary the number.’
Simulations have played a major part in how governments choose policies in the fight against coronavirus
So we've gone from a second wave being over 2x worse than the first to 'a shallow second wave'. The flu season starts in less than 2 months, it does make you wonder how many flu related deaths in the following 6 months are going to have Covid19 on the death certificate.
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