Second place may be SNP's best hope in where Labour look dominant

THE constituencies in which it’s hardest to find much reason for SNP optimism in this General Election are the seven that were actually won byAlthough the SNP incumbent Owen Thompson only lost by two percentage points that year and subsequently took the seat back by a reasonably comfortable 12-point margin in 2019, it’s very difficult to see why Labour wouldn’t regain it this year if they were able to previously do so underat a time when they were still as much as 10 points behind the SNP...

Voters swinging back to Labour in Midlothian in 2024 are probably motivated by a reversion to an old tribal instinct in the same way as they were seven years ago, and might be imagining that they are somehow “kicking theout” – without realising that voting SNP is just as effective a way of doing that in any SNP-Labour battleground seat where the Tories have no chance.

On a uniform swing, Thompson would only retain his seat if the SNP are at least 15 points ahead of Labour nationwide. Although there are still a few days left for the SNP’s national position to recover, it’s phenomenally improbable that there will be a surge on that scale.

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