An old cartoon by Michael Leunig has a man crying out: “Here I am . . . unemployed, unimportant. And there you are . . . wealthy . . . powerful. You own property . . . gold . . . art . . . wine and human souls in massive, sickening, criminal quantities! How do you sleep at night?” The other man replies: “I sleep at night between silk sheets on a heated, king size auto-massage waterbed with piped music in a very quiet street . . . with a companion whose beauty would make you weak with desire.
The belief that drove my decision to sell is that valuation is everything. No matter how you cut and slice the index, whether you include megacap technology names or not, the S&P 500 is expensive relative to history. That rarely ends well. We are told near the top of every bull market it is different this time, that company growth rates and margins and returns on equity will not fade. In the 1980s it was mandatory for western managers to fly to Japan to learn its secret sauce.
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