Rishi Sunak's political survival comes down to three crucial questions

None of this decides the next General Election in advance – there’s a lot to play for, the Conservative Party still has campaigning clout, and being in office provides advantages in timing and framing the campaign. But last week’s ballot illustrates that Rishi Sunak is in a fight for his political life.

In 2019, Boris Johnson managed to seize both arguments, harnessing widespread frustration at the Brexit deadlock and the alarming possibility of Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. Without either of those benefits available to him, Sunak has to plump for the role of safe, reassuring, secure continuity. To do so requires him to communicate fear of loss to the electorate.

The germ of his answer can be seen in his “five pledges”: halving inflation, growing the economy, reducing national debt, cutting NHS waiting lists, and stopping the small boats crossing the Channel. These are the categories that he wants to show progress on – only progress, not outright success, given his recent caveats – and therefore the issues that he believes voters won’t want to risk.

While answering the first question, the Conservatives must simultaneously answer the second: who do they believe Starmer to be, and what is the risk he poses? I suspect they’ll opt for the latter, not least because of Starmer’s own efforts to distance himself from the former message – ditching most of his promises to Labour members over nationalisation and tuition fees, for example. It’s easier to imagine Sunak pairing an argument about steady progress on his five goals with a cautionary argument that Starmer breaks promises

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