Rishi Sunak and the other big name Tory MPs at risk at the next election

Rishi Sunak has a 59 per cent chance of winning the Richmond seat, versus 38 per cent for Labour and 3 per cent for the Reform Party Some of the most prominent Conservative MPs could potentially lose their seats or face a slashed majority as part of a landslide Labour victory at the next election, a new poll has suggested.

According to the statistics, Mr Sunak could now be left with just a 2.4 per cent lead over Labour in the area. This gives him a 59 per cent chance of winning the seat, versus 38 per cent for Labour and 3 per cent for the Reform Party.The current Leader of the House Penny Mourdaunt also potentially faces the risk of losing her seat as representative of Portsmouth North if the data are to be believed.

The data give Mr Hunt a just 52 per cent chance of retaining his seat again versus 45 per cent for his rival.Though the Welwyn Hatfield has held the seat since 2005, the new data put his chances of re-election at just 3 per cent, while Labour is predicted to have a 97 per cent chance of winning the constituency with a 10 per cent majority.

Surrey Heath has voted for the Conservatives in every general election since 1997. Liberal Democrat candidate Alasdair Pinkerton picked up just 27.3 per cent of the vote in 2019, and will be running again in 2024.She has an estimated 92 per cent chance of winning her seat back in the the Essex constituency of Saffron Walden, which is set to be renamed will be renamed North West Essex in the 2024 election.

Chingford was fairly evenly contested between Labour and the Conservatives in the 2019 general election, though it was Conservative stronghold in past decades. Labour candidate Faiza Shaheen grabbed 45.9 per cent of the vote, while Liberal Democrats candidate Geoffrey Seeff grabbed 5.6 per cent. The pollsters are giving her a 71 per cent chance of winning the seat, versus 29 per cent for Labour albeit leaving her with just a 3.5 per cent majority.Steve Barclay, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affair, has strong odds of the retaining his seat if Survation’s data is to be believed.The market research firm pegged his odds of victory at 92 per cent just versus 8 per cent for Labour.

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