Key election results that could decide Rishi Sunak’s fate

Today's elections may plunge Tories into more turmoil and could also have major consequences for Labour, the Lib-Dems, the Green Party and ReformWith 107 councils involved and 10 directly elected mayors to be chosen, plus a Parliamentary by-election, the results could prove a major political turning point ahead of the national vote.

Experts predict the Tories could lose around half of the 1,000 or so council seats up for grabs, meaning anything in the low hundreds could feasibly be touted as an improvement on expectations. YouGov also found that in the Tees Valley, incumbent Lord Houchen was on 51 per cent, ahead of Labour rival Chris McEwan, backed by 44 per cent of voters.

At the same time, Tory rebels will be watching for major losses for mayoral candidates including Lord Houchen, who won more than 70 per cent of the vote in 2021.Rebels could also be provoked if the Tories are pushed into third place by Reform in the Blackpool South by-election, being held after Tory incumbent Scott Benson resigned after it emerged he had offered to lobby ministers in return for payments.

The party is hopeful of council seat gains in Harlow, Thurrock and Basildon for evidence that the tide is turning in the region, which has become more Conservative in the wake of Brexit. The opposition is also anxious about councils serving large Muslim populations, with the Israel-Gaza war proving a thorny issue for the party over the past few months.

Reform will field just over 300 local election candidates – a long way short of the 1,000 each from Labour and the Conservatives. But most will be keeping close eyes on the Blackpool South Westminster by-election, where Reform is hopeful its candidate Mark Butcher can edge Tory candidate David Jones into third place.

Many in the party hope Reform would see a major boost if Mr Farage, its current honorary president, returns to the fold as party leader. Sir Ed Davey, the leader of the Lib Dems, said on Tuesday that “lifelong” Tories were turning to the party because “the Conservative party no longer represents their values and no longer speaks up for them”.

“I think they always want to see some sort of progress, given some of the places where these races are taking place and the comparison between the Conservatives in 2021 ,” said Mr Hopkins.Best case

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