‘If Starmer wants to not just regain but hold onto the Red Wall, he has to treat those seats not as “safe” but as closely-fought marginals’ Yes, even among fans of the most vociferously anti-establishment, “anti-woke”, pro-Brexit television station, Keir Starmer’s party was significantly ahead of both Rishi Sunak and Nigel Farage – and the latter’sAnd when GB News does its own polling of the general public, rather than just its viewers, its “People Polling” survey has even bigger leads.
Yet that risks misinterpreting what’s going on under the surface. First, the big Tory-to-Labour swing in Leave areas is in many ways a logical consequence of the fact that these were the areas that the Conservatives had made the biggest gains five years ago.there is a difference between the changing “tide” of voting patterns, and the new “tribes” of identity that were amplified by the Brexit referendum.
Crucially, after his election victory, Johnson acknowledged that these voters were “lending” their votes to him . Of course, his own incompetence and lies caught up with him in the end, and that loan has been comprehensively reclaimed. Voter volatility has proved just as capable of delivering Keir Starmer a landslide only five years after a dire defeat, as giving Johnson the first big Tory majority in a generation. A majority can melt as quickly as it forms.In the US, Joe Biden shows an incumbent government can struggle to sell a message of economic recovery, especially if its working class voters have de-aligned and gone to Donald Trump once before.
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