Kazakhstan’s bloody turbulence will affect all of Central Asia

With some of the security forces dead and his own position as Mr Nazarbayev’s hand-picked successor apparently at risk, President Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev went on the offensive. He declared a state of emergency and an “anti-terrorism” operation against “bandits” seeking to overthrow the state. He ordered the security forces to shoot troublemakers on sight.

That protests erupted in Zhanaozen is the least surprising turn of events. To a degree which Mr Tokayev only now acknowledges, the wealth from Kazakhstan’s vast reserves of oil, coal and metal ores, and the development that was expected to flow from them, has been spread unequally. That has bred resentment among oil-workers, as well as low-earners in the countryside and smaller cities. The greatest beneficiaries have been well-connected oligarchs.

At any rate, Mr Tokayev’s allies privately blame relatives of Mr Nazarbayev for instigating the insurrection. The president himself has not publicly accused his predecessor or his family. Indeed, officials have denied rumours that one of the former president’s nephews, Samat Abish, the deputy head of intelligence, has been dismissed from his post or arrested like his boss.

Strongmen are the norm in Central Asia. Emomali Rahmon has ruled Tajikistan since 1994, when civil war raged in the newly independent republic. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are on only their second presidents since independence. Glossy-coated steeds feature prominently in the personality cult of Turkmenistan’s current ruler, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, “The Protector”, just as they do in Kim Jong Un’s North Korea. Tiny Kyrgyzstan is the exception, a nominal democracy.

Still, there are notable points of light. When Islam Karimov died in 2016, ending a brutal 27-year reign over Uzbekistan, his successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, admitted the dead-end into which Uzbekistan had been driven. He lifted restrictions on converting currency and streamlined customs procedures. He made it plain that apparatchiks were not to shake down local businesses.

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