Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskThe Guangzhou store’s big day is a widely cited example of “revenge spending” in the wake of a lockdown. The term refers to the tendency of consumers to splash out after a period of enforced abstinence—overspending in an attempt to “get even”, hedonically if not financially. As Shanghai emerged from its long lockdown on June 1st, queues formed outside an even bigger Hermès store in China’s financial hub.
In Shanghai’s case, that is a tall order. Retail sales fell by almost half in April, compared with a year earlier. From that low point, sales would have to grow by almost 100% merely to get back to normal. For sales to exceed normal by as much as they fell short of it during the lockdown, they would have to grow by roughly 200% from trough to peak.
But in many other categories, including services and perishable goods, consumption has been forgone, not merely postponed. “My hair has not been trimmed for three months,” said Sheng Songcheng of China Europe International Business School at an economic forum last month. “After the lockdown is lifted, it is impossible for me to trim my hair three times a month. This lost consumption will be lost forever.” The same is true of gym trips, restaurant meals and weekend revelries.
What percentage is locked down? No one writes that it's less than 1%.
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