Individuals under 65 years may be the predominant drivers of COVID-19 in West Africa

By Tarun Sai LomteJul 6 2022Reviewed by Aimee Molineux In a recent study posted to the medRxiv* preprint server, researchers evaluated the effects of age structure and vaccine prioritization regarding coronavirus disease 2019 in West Africa .

The study and findings In the present study, researchers formulated a mathematical framework accounting for age structure and vaccination to estimate the contribution of the older and younger population to COVID-19 incidence in WA. The authors developed three compartmental models for SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in WA.

Some parameters of all three models were available in the literature, and others were unknown, which were estimated by fitting the corresponding model to daily COVID-19 case data for 16 countries in WA. A simplified basic model version without vaccination was fitted to data for the pre-vaccine period to integrate the entire COVID-19 data from February 28, 2020, to May 24, 2022. Model fitting and parameter estimation were performed using a non-linear least-squares algorithm.

The researchers reported that reducing Rc to below one was impossible by vaccinating only the young or the adult population, even when complemented with a 20% increase in the use of masks unless the daily vaccination rate was exceptionally high. Nevertheless, the disease could be contained if both youth and older adults were vaccinated at specific target rates.

Conclusion In this study, researchers developed, parameterized, and analyzed a compartmental mathematical framework for evaluating transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with different vaccination strategies. The findings indicated that people below 65 years were the predominant drivers of COVID-19 in WA.

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