How to trade an election

in their approach to elections. Some see politics as an edge to exploit; others as noise to block out. Even for those without a financial interest, markets offer a brutally frank perspective on the economic stakes. As elections approach in America and Britain, as well as plenty of other countries, that is especially valuable.

What are markets saying about the current race for the White House? The candidates’ agendas are similar in places. Both tilt protectionist ; both would oversee hefty deficits . But there are also big differences. Mr Trump has vowed to end Europe’s freeriding on America’s defence budget; Mr Biden is unlikely to renew tax cuts from Mr Trump’s first term that expire in 2025. Mr Trump would gut Mr Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act , redirecting green spending to fossil fuels.

Speculators can bet on the outcome of the election by investing money accordingly. Indeed, a portfolio of company stocks that ought to benefit if Mr Trump wins, as well as short positions on companies that ought to lose out in such a scenario, tracks Mr Trump’s odds of winning the election in betting markets. The chart below shows one such basket, assembled by Citrini Research, a research firm.

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