to get a sense of how China feels about the prospect of Donald Trump winning America’s presidential election, Chinese social media offers some revealing signals. In the last few weeks it has begun to boil over with fury and mockery. The prospect ofof over 60% on Chinese imports? “Add even more,” rages one online commentator in the mainland. “I’d be curious to see how ordinary Americans would live.” Others think he would increase the.
On the other hand Mr Biden’s more systematic approach to governing has posed a different kind of threat to China than Mr Trump’s first term did. America has kept the Trump tariffs in place, but on top of that also built a comprehensive system for restricting Western technology flows to China. And by investing in America’s security partnerships and alliances, from Australia and India to the Philippines and South Korea, it has rejuvenated an Asian security system to deter and contain China.
Either way the kind of decoupling that Mr Trump’s economic advisers envisage would inflict profound damage on China’s economy. Studies by JaeBin Ahn and other economists at the IMF show what would happen if the world splits into rival economic spheres with limited flows of foreign-direct investment between them. If flows of investment between the blocs were to fall by half, it could eventually reduce China’sby about 2%, relative to a baseline in which investment flows more freely.
involves exactly the kind of long-term, rather than transactional, relationship that Mr Trump dislikes.
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