How Influential Will Chinese Crude Imports Be On Oil Prices This Winter? | OilPrice.com

- Nov 04, 2022, 9:00 AM CDT

Still, Chinese crude oil imports are likely to be robust in November and the early part of December as producers from around the world are estimated to have loaded in October the highest volumes bound for China in ten months. The short-term trends in Chinese demand and refinery throughput will be key drivers of oil prices, not only in the physical but also in the paper market, which has shown time and again that it is sensitive to news about the potential weakening of China’s oil demand due to the Covid curbs.

China-bound crude tankers with their destination declared loaded as much as 9.3 million barrels per day of oil in October, up by 500,000 bpd from September, and the highest in at least ten months, according to tanker-tracking data compiled byConsidering that more October-loaded tankers have yet to declare destinations, and some may not declare at all—for example, tankers carrying oil from Iran, Venezuela, or Russia—Chinese imports in November and December could be relatively high.

The impact of the most recent Covid restrictions has yet to be felt in fuel demand and refiners’ decisions to buy oil in the coming months. Chinese refiners, however, now have another batch of fuel export quotas and could boost refinery runs regardless of potentially weaker domestic demand.

Most of the economic data we get from China needs multiple levels of verification. The data cannot be trusted any more by econometricians.

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