) on March 6th was a swish affair. Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, and scores of Conservatives tucked into champagne and pork in the gothic splendour of the London Guildhall. There was much to celebrate. Founded by Margaret Thatcher and Keith Joseph in 1974 to “think the unthinkable” about Britain’s stalling post-war economy, its ideas and policies had powered her administration. The think-tank’s principles remain the government’s lodestars, Mr Sunak declared.
The government is in part a victim of external shocks in the form of covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. But much of the blame lies with Conservative backbenchers, whose approach to governing has come to resemble that of the trade unions whose strikes drove inflation, blackouts and shortages 50 years ago. Back then thegave Thatcher her blueprint for breaking the shop stewards. Now the Tories themselves are the problem.
Those Tory supporters are disproportionately found among the old. That is a problem. Britain’s most pressing challenge, says Robert Colvile, the’s current head, is demography. As the population ages, keeping spending on the over-65s at its current 10% share ofwould require the economy to expand by nearly 3% a year for the next 50 years.
Restraining spending would also mean reinventing the welfare state. Over 14 years in government, several schemes to fund adult social care—among them duties on property, payroll taxes and insurance schemes—have been proposed and then strangled. Like the carworkers’ unions that fought off modernisation, a desire to see off short-term pain has prevailed over the long-run benefits of a reformed social-care system.In 1974 the unions appeared unstoppable.
Therein lies the lesson for Tory trade unionists. Demography and sluggish growth are straining the post-cold-war model of low-ish taxes and a generous welfare state. But when their electorate faces hard choices, Tory backbenchers protect their voters’ short-term interests. In failing to forge new settlements on taxation, public services and Britain’s ability to get things built while they have enjoyed influence, the Tory militants are set to hand the initiative to a future Labour government.
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