might seem an unlikely candidate for Germany’s most popular politician. A ruddy-faced veteran of local politics in the flat north-western state of Lower Saxony, he can sound gruff and dismissive. His party, the Social Democrats, has suffered a steep drop in support since taking power at the head of a three-way coalition in 2021.
But Mr Pistorius faces a huge task. Germany took its “peace dividend” at the end of the cold war all too seriously. Over the past three decades the number of soldiers in the Bundeswehr, Germany’s armed forces, has fallen from 500,000 to 181,500. Worse, internal reports have suggested embarrassingly low levels of operational readiness for many systems, such as helicopters and ageing infantry vehicles. That is hardly surprising.
But given his stated ambition to make Germany the “backbone” of European defence, Mr Pistorius is the first to admit that this is still not good enough. He has suggested that 2% ofshould be a floor rather than a ceiling. And he would prefer to see the commitment reflected in the budget itself, not just by means of a temporary fund. Last year he asked for an extra €10bn; all he got in the budget was €1.8bn, not enough to cover cost-of-living adjustments in soldiers’ pay.
The money is just one item on a long wish-list. Mr Pistorius has declared that Germany, which last week signed a joint defence pact with Ukraine and is already its second-biggest donor after America, plans to send three to four times more artillery ammunition to the country this year than last. He wants to beef up the German army with an extra 20,000 soldiers by 2031. Given Germany’s sinking demography, this could prove tough.
Mr Pistorius is due to present a plan for overhauling the Bundeswehr in early April. He has spoken publicly of at least considering a return to the draft, which Germany abolished in 2011. There is also talk of adopting a Swedish model of national service, which might entail strengthening Germany’s feeble military reserve force and creating a home guard. A strong emphasis is being put on readiness. By 2032 the Bundeswehr wants to field three fully equipped combat divisions.