In its 40-year history, just two people have been MP for Lagan Valley: the former Ulster Unionist leader James Molyneaux and his one-time protégé Jeffrey Donaldson.In other words, Lagan Valley has been the surest of sure things for unionism. But no more.
The absence of Sir Jeffrey this time - after being charged with rape and other historical sexual offences - has only added to the Alliance party's optimism that it can topple this great unionist monolith. There had been speculation that with devolution restored after steering the DUP back into Stormont, he would have retired to a quieter life on the red benches of the House of Lords.
Drumbo is lost to South Belfast and Mid Down, and more significantly Dunmurry is lost to West Belfast.
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