Even if GDP shrinks, America may officially avoid a downturn. For now

Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskBut things are not that simple. Officially, the decision about whether or not the American economy is in recession belongs to the business-cycle dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research , a private, non-partisan research organisation. It is an eight-member group of macroeconomists including Robert Gordon of Northwestern University and Christina Romer of University of California, Berkeley.

Some sceptics might sniff a political conspiracy in this—say, an attempt to prop up Joe Biden’s beleaguered presidency. In fact, the reasoning is far more banal. When identifying business cycles in recent decades thehas put most weight on real personal incomes and employment figures, and both of these are so far holding up better thangrowth. Real incomes have indeed started to fall as soaring prices eat into wages. But job growth has remained remarkably strong.

Some also dread what may lie around the corner. With inflation so persistent , the Fed has embarked on a course of monetary tightening that seems destined to be its sharpest since the early 1980s. Increases in interest rates do not always precede recessions. But it will be a small miracle if America can absorb tightening of this magnitude without suffering a pronounced rise in unemployment.

will the economy faire well for anyone below $200k/yr?

Has the economy gotten too big to fail?

It is not unusual for the United Slaves of America to bare face lie to their population.

That's called dumbing down the definition, the same reason 'official' inflation is less than the 70's.

What could bring the rebound in private employment to a swift end & make a recession a reality? Reducing the active business income of individually & family owned businesses with a double digit tax increase. It's time to finally put that bad idea to rest.

More immigrants are needed to maintain growth in Western societies.

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