The Chinese stock market reacted to Beijing’s about-face on COVID infections with a surge in prices, particularly in tech stocks. Due to a strong correlation with the stock market, metal prices have continued to rise since December. The expectation is that abandoning any meaningful attempt to control the spread of the virus will allow the economy to bounce back significantly following two years of harsh lockdowns.
Currently, the world faces a recovering Chinese economy, a weak dollar, and the growing expectation the global recession may not be as bad as feared. All of these could support the case for higher prices this year. Goldman Sachs recently raised their forecasted 2023 earnings growth for Chinese equities to 17%. Many investors also believe that the Fed already has peak interest rates in sight, which caused last year’s dollar strength to reverse.The jury is still out on recession fears.
Meanwhile, despite weak prices in Q2 and Q3 of 2022, China’s metals consumption increased at a relatively healthy rate. According to, both copper and aluminum imports rose significantly. The country’s net imports of refined copper totaled 3.64 million tons last year, an increase of almost 300,000 tons over 2021. This also represents the second-highest tally after a record-breaking 2020.
Simultaneously, imports of mined concentrates notched up to a new annual record of 25.32 million tons. In fact, imports of copper scrap were the highest since 2018. That said, visible inventories within China remain historically low, and metal prices are reacting accordingly. The Reuters article suggests that at least part of the buying spree could be the State Reserves Bureau replenishing its stocks.
Ultimately, China’s consumption of base metals and steel products represents a significant percentage of global demand. Therefore, an increase could have major repercussions on a market already facing near-historic low levels of inventory. This supports the expectation that metal prices will likely rise in the year ahead. By how much, of course, remains to be seen.
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