China is about to come face to face with economic reality. No wonder it's angry

That is happening already, with the telecoms company Huawei excluded from building 5G networks in many Western nations. More generally, as costs have risen in China and countries in the West have become worried about supply chain security, the advantage of buying from China has diminished. Maybe it is worth paying a bit more to have greater security of supply, rather than relying on one country on the other side of the world.

suggesting that China’s real population is not 1.41 billion, the published figure, and could be even smaller than his own estimate of 1.28 billion. The reason is that birth rates going right back to the 1990s may have been much lower than officially recorded. We know the country is ageing fast. And we know that countries with older populations have to devote more resources to looking after their elderly and have fewer resources for overseas expansion.

One key indicator is the number of BCG vaccinations given against tuberculosis, for they are compulsory in China within 24 hours of birth. We know how many doses were distributed and that one dose on average is enough for 1.2 babies. This means he could calculate how many babies were born each year, many fewer than the official number.

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