President Macron has gambled and failed — disastrously. Far from putting France’s populist Right back in its box after it came first in elections to the European Parliament last month, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, which won a predicted 34 per cent of the vote according to exit polls in yesterday’s legislative elections, will now be the largest party in the French National Assembly.Macron’s centrist Renaissance party was thumped.
Macron has not just lumbered France with a populist Right – the second biggest grouping in the National Assembly will be the Left-wing New Popular Front, dominated by France’s Corbynistas and Communists. It won 28 per cent of the vote. The centre has not held. France’s centrist president has been its executioner. He has opened the door to political and economic instability.
With Olaf Scholz already the walking-wounded Chancellor of Germany, at a time when Europe faces a revanchist Russia to its east and the possibility of the return of an anti-Nato, anti-EU Donald Trump to its west, Europe will be bereft of leadership when it faces serious peril. There can be little doubt Le Pen’s party will be the largest in the new parliament. Early seat projections suggest it will be shy of a majority of seats, but the Republicans – France’s old centre-Right – could have enough seats to give the National Rally an overall majority should it so choose.
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