Global fertility rates to decline, shifting population burden to low-income countries

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WASHINGTON — Fertility rates in nearly all countries will be too low to sustain population levels by the end of the century, and most of the world's live births will be occurring in poorer countries, according to a study published on March 20. The trend will lead to a 'baby boom' and 'baby bust' divide across the world, with the...

The global fertility rate — the average number of births per woman — has fallen from around five children in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021, data show.WASHINGTON — Fertility rates in nearly all countries will be too low to sustain population levels by the end of the century, and most of the world's live births will be occurring in poorer countries, according to a study published on March 20.

The forecasts are based on surveys, censuses, and other sources of data collected from 1950 through 2021 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. By 2021, 110 countries and territories had rates below the population replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

 

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