Downside risks seen in 5 major economies this year and next: SMU survey

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Of the five economies studied, the Euro Area appeared to be most at risk in the multi-year outlook.

: How will the five largest economies in the world perform over the next few years? If there is a surprise to the GDP growth forecasts for this year and next, survey participants expect that to be tilted to the downside.

This was followed by Japan, the United States, China and India, whose economy the participants thought were least at risk. SKBI is a think tank within the university for applied financial research in financial markets that is driven by industry and societal needs in Singapore and the region. Lam said his read of the survey was that while the tone is generally cautious, it is not necessarily gloomy. “Although there are downside risks to growth, there is also room for policy measures to potentially offset any surprises.”

Participants also seem to think these economies are more likely to make changes to monetary policy instead of fiscal policy, indicating they did not think any slippages in growth would be significant or both levers would be used instead of just leaning on monetary policy.

 

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