Commentary: Iran’s aerial attack on Israel allowed both sides to save face

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Iran demonstrated its ability to strike Israel, and Israel demonstrated its air defence capabilities. Whether both sides can move on depends on their respective calculations, says University of Birmingham’s Stefan Wolff.

An anti-missile system operates after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel , as seen from Ashkelon, Israel , on Apr 14, 2024. Despite the scale of the attack, little damage was done on the ground. Most of the projectiles were shot down by Israel , with support from the United States , United Kingdom and France, as well as some of Israel ’s Arab neighbours, before they even entered Israel i airspace.

One reason for this is that Iran, so far, has been careful not to let things escalate toward a direct confrontation with Israel. Yet for all the bluster, the Iranian response was comparatively moderate, given that Israel and its allies had plenty of warning once the attack was under way and were thus able to take down 99 per cent of the all the projectiles sent from Iran.In Israel, the calculations might be different, however.

If these were the calculations of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, they would be very risky bets, indeed. It is not at all clear that Israel would be able to fight a multi-front war against a range of highly sophisticated, capable and ruthless enemies at a time when there is little global sympathy left for the country.

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