Commentary: French snap vote will decide fate of Europe’s rampart against far right

LONDON: European parliament elections are a collection of national contests. They often matter more domestically than they do in Brussels or Strasbourg, given the diffuse nature of power and decision-making in the EU.

The outcome of that French vote might matter more for the future direction of the EU than the results of the European parliament vote on Sunday. The dream of a Eurosceptic supergroup that could rival the centre right and centre left blocs, the parliament’s power brokers, remains just that. Indeed, the far right could split into three groups: Hardline radicals including Alternative for Germany, governing pragmatists led by Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and hard-right Eurosceptics such as Le Pen.

The cordon sanitaire has been crumbling across Europe for some time. By the end of this year, 10 of the EU’s 27 member states, including France, could be governed by coalitions that include or are supported by populist or far-right parties. Mostly, it is a case of conservatives finding some common cause with the hard right.

Macron may calculate that things may only get worse for his centrist alliance. Its stunning defeat this weekend - a hitherto resilient 20-25 per cent core electorate is disintegrating - is likely to stir a war of succession among those of his supporters with presidential ambitions.

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